Interestingly, the stock market return can actually reach highs of more than ten times the average on a regular trading day. With careful preparation, both short and long-term investors can potentially benefit from this. The reasons for this are pretty obvious. Most people enjoy the holidays and look forward to relaxing with friends and family. Traders may well be feeling more optimistic, and therefore more likely to trade with confidence — perhaps even taking more positive positions than usual.
An experienced investor will adapt his strategy to take this buoyancy into account and potentially profit from it. However, it is of paramount importance to remember to remove your own emotions from the equation, difficult as that may be.
You would be wise to avoid reacting with overconfidence yourself, as this is a sure-fire way to lose your hard-earned capital. Market sentiment can often remain positive after and even between holidays.
National Holidays Calendar - Forex Data & Tools by Dukascopy
While national holidays can produce price spikes, volatility and other anomalies, investors can prepare for these trends and factor them into their strategies — potentially to their benefit! It takes some forward-planning and, of course, communication with their broker to ensure they are well aware of any upcoming schedule change. However, a wise trader will remember two core principles of safe investment: never risk more capital then you are prepared to lose, and that past performance certainly does not guarantee future positive results.
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Risk Warning: There is a high level of risk involved with trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs.
Easter Trading Hours
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. This is because the Banks are the biggest participants in the Forex market. If they are on holiday then the volume of transactions being carried out is greatly reduced.
This can lead to either really static markets or on occasion erratic markets.
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Either way, I steer clear. There are scheduled news releases and economic news throughout any given day. These can be found in advance by using an economic calendar. It can sometimes be difficult to know when not to trade when it comes to news. There are 3 types of news: yellow, orange, and red. Each has a different expected impact which is explained in the calendar. High impact, red folders tend to really move the market, sometimes spiking in both direction, before finally settling down. These are high risk times where a lot of people get stopped out of trade.
Rumours surrounding what the potential numbers will be can cause the market to move in anticipation. That may seem extreme, but these can be the biggest account killers that lead to traders quitting.
These tend to be on the economic calendar as well. If specific people are talking, please, do not trade. These tend to happen when people are asleep, but if you are trading the Japanese session then be wary! These people are notorious for dropping hints about economic policy changes that are likely to happen with the currency they are responsible for. These hints can cause a lot of speculation in the market which results in a lot of price movement. This can affect price substantially as they are responsible for setting interest rates for those countries.
Trading Schedule and National Public Holidays
As mentioned earlier, interest rate announcements can cause big movements. Erratic Periods. There will be times where a currency is moving differently from normal. This is a good time to stay out of the market. That is bad news because the market will be unsure as to how to react. For instance, this happened recently during the credit crunch and the various Banks reporting that they were having major difficulties. It is not recommended to hold trades over the weekend unless your method is a long-term strategy which incorporates holding trades for a long time — weeks, months.
A lot can happen over a weekend. All it would take is for one Bank to go bust over the weekend for your position to flip on its head. Current tensions in a lot of countries around the world lead to violence which heavily impact the market. These type of events will generally lead to the market opening after the weekend with a large gap and generally a large change in your position. This can often cause serious harm to your trading account balance.
At market close a number of trading positions are being closed. This will lead to volatility in the currency markets which can then cause price to move erratically.
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The same applies at market open. December and Summer Holidays. Banks tend to trade the Forex market at least once a day for balance sheet reasons. They can also trade multiple times throughout the day for speculation reasons.